OSINTSUM: 12 November 2026

From Fortitude Intelligence

In which present-day country did footage smuggled out after soldiers opened fire on a funeral procession on this day in 1991 draw international attention to its fight for independence? Find out at the bottom of today’s edition.

COP31: Turkey urged governments to back a zero-waste initiative at COP31, which was not attended by the leaders of China, India, or the United States. The three absent leaders’ countries account for more than half of global carbon dioxide emissions, so their domestic policies will have more impact on global emissions than pledges from the countries represented by their leaders in Antalya.
Read more · Summit attendance

Global markets: Europe’s STOXX 600 rose 0.3% to a record high in early trading, helped by strong corporate earnings and lower energy prices, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% as uncertainty over Nvidia’s leadership weighed on AI stocks. Lower energy prices ease financial pressure on European businesses, while the sell-off in AI stocks demonstrates how scrutiny of a single US chipmaker can significantly affect tech valuations overseas.
Read more · Asian markets

Oil: Saudi Arabia led an increase in OPEC+ output in October, taking the group to about 41.2 million barrels a day, equivalent to 97% of its pre-war February level. Production has nearly recovered, but buyers remain exposed to delays and higher freight and insurance costs, particularly where cargoes still have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Read more · Production figures

Democratic Republic of Congo: Médecins Sans Frontières warned that Congo’s Ebola outbreak remained out of control six months in, after the government recorded 11,042 cases and 5,387 deaths. Kenya has started its 42-day countdown towards being declared Ebola-free, but delays in detecting cases in Congo leave neighbouring states exposed to fresh introductions.
Read more · Case figures

Democratic Republic of Congo: President Félix Tshisekedi signed a law allowing constitutional changes to be put to a referendum, prompting concern that he may seek a third term. The law gives Tshisekedi a route to put changes to presidential term limits to a public vote, setting up a potential dispute over who can stand in the next election.
Read more

Egypt: An Egyptian court postponed the retrial of Mada Masr editor Lina Attalah after her lawyers asked for the presiding judge to be removed over concerns about bias. The adjournment prolongs the threat of a prison sentence for Attalah as her employer, one of Egypt’s remaining independent news outlets, pursues a separate appeal against its closure.
Read more

Libya and Chad: The immigration authority affiliated with Libya’s eastern administration said its Kufra branch returned 602 Chadian nationals overland to Chad. If eastern Libya’s authorities expand such operations, they could reduce the role of Libya as a major departure point for migrants attempting to reach to Europe.
Read more

Haiti: The UN said kidnappings in Port-au-Prince rose in the third quarter, with children accounting for 10% of victims, and recorded at least 1,167 killings nationwide during the same period. Persistent insecurity in the capital threatens preparations for Haiti’s first presidential election in a decade and increases the burden on the foreign forces deployed to help contain gang violence.
Read more

Mexico and United States: Mexico said it was tightening checks to stop steel from China and other countries being rerouted through its territory as it sought US tariff relief on steel, aluminium, and cars. Enforcing origin rules gives Mexico a way to address Washington’s concerns about tariff avoidance while pressing for lower duties on goods actually made in Mexico.
Read more

Paraguay: Fitch placed Paraguay’s BB+ sovereign credit rating on watch for a possible downgrade after the collapse of digital bank Ueno and the removal of President Santiago Peña. A downgrade could raise the government’s borrowing costs at a time when it is already under pressure to protect depositors and restore confidence in bank supervision.
Read more

United States and China: The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia’s board was preparing to remove CEO Jensen Huang, as data-centre operator and Nvidia customer Megaspeed said it had cooperated with US inspections. The scrutiny extends beyond Nvidia’s leadership to whether Washington can verify where advanced US chips end up after they pass through overseas customers.
Read more · Board report

Venezuela: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez told COP31 that Venezuela had the sovereign right to expand its oil industry. Caracas is signalling that it will prioritise rebuilding oil revenues, putting it at odds with governments seeking a COP31 commitment to move away from fossil fuels.
Read more

The OSINTSUM continues below our sponsor’s message

Built for the most ambitious companies in GTM, Attio is an end to end revenue platform that allows teams to run multiple plays across different revenue motions and lifecycles.

Teams at the frontier are already building on it: Granola, turbopuffer, Modal, and many many more.

Start building on Attio.

Australia: Major Australian companies faced accusations of overstating AI’s role in restructuring as they cut jobs and shifted work overseas, with Qantas announcing 850 domestic job cuts under an outsourcing deal. If work is moving abroad, the jobs are being relocated, which gives Australian unions grounds to challenge companies’ claims that automation made the cuts necessary.
Read more · Qantas cuts

China: Reuters reported that technology start-ups in Shenzhen, host of this year’s APEC summit, still rely on overseas buyers for products ranging from robotics to consumer technology. Tariffs and market-access restrictions can therefore impact sales at companies Beijing is counting on to sustain growth in advanced manufacturing.
Read more

China and Taiwan: Chinese President Xi Jinping said unification with Taiwan must happen and described it as historically inevitable during a ceremony in Beijing marking the 160th anniversary of Sun Yat-sen’s birth. Xi’s remarks reaffirm Beijing’s insistence on unification ahead of the Shenzhen APEC summit, leaving little room for a political compromise with Taipei over Taiwan’s status.
Read more

China, Taiwan, and G7: G7 foreign ministers warned that China’s increasingly assertive activity east of Taiwan threatened regional stability, freedom of navigation, and the safety of international shipping. By singling out waters east of Taiwan, the G7 is putting diplomatic pressure on Beijing over its activity along Pacific shipping routes beyond the Taiwan Strait.
Read more

India: Indian police sought records after an investigation found that the telecoms department ordered providers to block 129 betting websites using two forged High Court orders. The case exposes a gap in how India verifies takedown orders, leaving foreign and domestic websites vulnerable to being blocked through fraudulent documents.
Read more

India and Philippines: India’s foreign ministry said Prime Minister Narendra Modi would travel to Manila from 16 to 18 November for the ASEAN summit. The visit gives New Delhi a chance to deepen trade and maritime security ties with Southeast Asian governments, including the Philippines, which is seeking additional defence partners amid its disputes with China.
Read more

Malaysia: Malaysia is considering legislation requiring data-centre operators to disclose information including their electricity use and how many advanced chips they import. Mandatory reporting would give Kuala Lumpur a better record of where imported chips go, helping it address US concerns about diversion while continuing to attract data-centre investment.
Read more

Taiwan: President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan would participate in the Shenzhen APEC summit on an equal basis with other members. APEC gives Taiwan a seat at the same economic forum as China and the United States, allowing Taipei to discuss trade directly with governments that do not formally recognise it.
Read more

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden: Nordic defence ministers agreed to work towards a common defence agreement at a meeting in Oslo. A shared legal framework would make it easier for the five NATO members to plan and operate across national borders, reducing delays when one country needs to support another.
Read more

European Union and United States: An adviser to the EU’s top court recommended overturning a ruling that annulled the European Commission’s €1.49bn fine against Google over AdSense contracts that allegedly restricted publishers from using rival advertising services. If the judges follow the advice, the case will return to the lower court, where Google could face the fine again and the Commission could strengthen its hand in challenging similar restrictions across the online advertising market.
Read more

France, Hungary, and Italy: A bomb alert temporarily disrupted trains through Calais-Fréthun as Italy worked on new evacuation procedures following threats against at least 300 schools and Hungarian airline Wizz Air called for a common European response. The alerts are now disrupting cross-border rail as well as aviation, with passengers and operators facing delays whenever authorities suspend services to investigate.
Read more · Italy’s response · Wizz Air

United Kingdom and European Union: Defence Secretary John Healey said Britain was seeking an agreement with the EU in which the benefits justify the concessions London would have to make. The terms will determine how much access Britain gains to EU programmes and markets and what obligations it accepts in return.
Read more

United Kingdom and Iran: A British court found two Iranian men guilty of assisting Iranian intelligence by spying on dissident journalists in Britain. The convictions establish that journalists working from Britain were targeted on behalf of Iranian intelligence, increasing pressure on London to protect exiled media organisations and their staff.
Read more

European Union and Russia: France’s Europe minister Benjamin Haddad said the EU would approve further sanctions against Russia on Monday. The planned measures will increase economic pressure on Moscow as US envoys pursue talks with Putin, even while European governments seek a direct role in negotiating a settlement.
Read more

Ireland: Leaders from more than 40 European countries gathered in Dublin for a European Political Community summit focused on security and the war in Ukraine. The summit gives Kyiv a chance to press European governments for a common position on post-war guarantees before Washington and Moscow settle terms that European allies may be asked to help enforce.
Read more

Ireland and Russia: Ireland faces calls to restrict alumina exports to Russia, with campaign group Alumina 22 estimating that roughly 491,000 tonnes were shipped between March and October from a Russian-owned refinery in Ireland. An EU restriction would cut a source of feedstock for Russian aluminium producers, as well as putting pressure on the Irish refinery to find alternative buyers.
Read more

Romania and Russia: Romania’s intelligence service said a hacking group it linked to Russia’s FSB targeted a Romanian government organisation last year. The attribution adds to the evidence Romania can present to EU and NATO partners when seeking a joint response to suspected Russian espionage against government institutions.
Read more

Russia, Ukraine, and United States: US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow after Russia and Ukraine exchanged attacks on each other’s capitals, and the envoys were due to meet Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin. The continued strikes limit what Kyiv can take from the prisoner exchange agreed in Abu Dhabi, and Zelensky has made clear that further progress depends on how Washington handles Moscow’s demands.
Read more · Strikes

Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had again experienced several days of reduced speeds on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite service, hampering efforts to intercept Russian drones. The disruption leaves part of Ukraine’s air defence exposed to manipulation of the performance of a US-operated service that Kyiv does not control.
Read more

United Kingdom and Russia: Russia’s defence ministry said military contacts with Britain could resume if London reached out. A direct channel would give both sides a way to raise incidents involving their forces before they escalate, but Moscow has left the decision to initiate contact with London.
Read more

The OSINTSUM continues below our sponsor’s message

Are you ready to reach holiday shoppers on CTV? For many streamers, the season is already underway.

Last year, according to Roku internal data, holiday content searches on Roku saw an 86% increase during October. And in November, those searches rise an average of 39% weekly. This surging holiday spirit is mirrored by consumer activity, as about half of Roku streamers shopped Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals in 2025.

Meeting those shoppers is easier than you might think. Begin with the seasonal outcome you hope to drive: awareness, online sales, leads, store visits, or another measurable goal. From there, define your audience, upload your creative, set the budget and campaign dates, and establish measurement before launching. You can even create a shoppable ad unit that lets streamers buy with a click of their remote.

Our holiday playbook offers a month-by-month guide to reaching shoppers during this all-important time of year.

First-time spenders get a $5,000 match on the first $5,000 spent with code BEEHIIV5K. Terms apply.

Launch your campaign today.

Iran and Oman: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said explosions disabled two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Reuters separately reported an Iranian attack on shipping navigation systems on Oman’s Didamar island. Damage to navigation infrastructure would affect vessels beyond the two tankers, increasing the risk of delays and higher insurance costs for operators using the strait.
Read more · Oman report

Iran, Israel, and United States: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told COP31 that Iran wanted compensation for environmental damage caused by US and Israeli strikes. If Tehran makes compensation a condition for a settlement, mediators would have to address who pays for clean-up alongside negotiations on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme.
Read more

Qatar and United States: US Soccer withdrew its men’s under-17 team from the 48-team FIFA World Cup in Qatar, citing safety concerns. The withdrawal demonstrates regional insecurity is impacting civilian travel in countries not directly involved in conflict.
Read more

Turkey: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank signed a $1.6bn financing package with Turkey at COP31 to support climate policy reforms. The package gives Ankara access to multilateral financing for reforms intended to attract further investment, as well as expanding the Beijing-based lender’s role in Turkey’s energy transition.
Read more

Turkey: The Financial Stability Board urged Turkey to introduce dedicated stablecoin rules and strengthen oversight of crypto markets. Tighter rules would give Turkish regulators more visibility over privately issued tokens used for cross-border payments and help them assess whether problems at a crypto issuer are spilling into domestic markets.
Read more

The OSINTSUM continues below our sponsor’s message

Aligned shows you what buyers are doing between meetings inside your most important deals then surfaces the risks, openings, and next steps. No more guessing where a deal stands or finding out a champion went quiet too late. Just real visibility, so you can act before it's too late.

Start Using Aligned Free

Timor-Leste. On this day in 1991, Indonesian soldiers opened fire on pro-independence demonstrators at Santa Cruz cemetery in Dili, killing around 250 people. Footage of the incident was smuggled out of the country and broadcast overseas, drawing international attention to Indonesia’s occupation. Timor-Leste would ultimately vote to end Indonesian rule in a UN-run referendum in 1999 before becoming independent in 2002.
Read more